Thinking in the negative: A heuristic for avoiding hangovers
Reading time: 2 minutes
We usually think good outcomes come from positive actions, i.e. doing more. We read books about successful people and try to emulate their steps to success. But how many books are written about their negative actions, i.e. what these people didn’t do?
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid instead of trying to be very intelligent.”
These are the words of Charlie Munger, the wise old owl of Berkshire Hathaway and perhaps the most quoted man on the internet. This idea is echoed by his business partner, Warren Buffet (aka the Oracle of Omaha), who said that his number one investment rule is:
“Never lose money.”
Buffet’s second rule is to remember the first one.
Author Nassim Taleb cites the idea of Via Negativa, which essentially states that disconfirmation provides more certainty than confirmation. Example:
Seeing a million white swans does not confirm with certainty that all swans are white, but seeing only a single black swan disconfirms (with 100% certainty) that all swans are white.
Thinking in the negative can be a useful strategy in sports, too.
The Springbok rugby team was in shambles when Rassie Erasmus took over as head coach in 2018. His first order of business was not to build a world-class attack but rather a rock-solid defence. Like Buffet and Munger, his initial focus was on not losing rather than winning. One year later, the Boks lifted the Web Ellis trophy.
I started Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) this year, and I’ve been studying the sport’s techniques. You win in BJJ by submitting your opponent, and this is achieved by executing a move (e.g. a choke or an arm lock) that forces your opponent to give up by tapping. John Danaher is the best BJJ coach in the world, and he advises newbies to ignore learning submissions and focus only on escaping bad positions. Only if fighters are confident that they can escape from the worst positions, he argues, can they be fearless in attack.
A simple analogy to summarise the moral of today’s article:
The best way to avoid hangovers isn’t fancy remedies; it’s not getting drunk in the first place.
Thanks for reading! 🙏
If you enjoyed today’s article, please SHARE it ✉️ with a friend.
Otherwise, please LIKE it ❤️.