The End of History Illusion
Since the birth of our baby boy a couple of months ago, I’ve been thinking about the future a lot. I’m intrigued by what the world he grows up in will look like. Will China be the global leader in the same way that America was when I grew up? Where are the rapid advances in technology heading? What will be the smartphone or internet of his generation? What will happen in his lifetime that will be as dramatic and historically significant as 9/11 or Covid-19?
Mostly, I wonder what he will be like. What will his interests be, and how will his personality evolve? What career and relationship choices will he make?
Despite the drastic changes and evolution expected for my son and his surroundings, I tend to think of myself as relatively static in this landscape of change. I expect my personality, values, likes and dislikes to remain mostly the same. Well, it turns out, I suffer from a common flaw in thinking called the End of History Illusion.
The End of History Illusion theory is based on a study done on thousands of people by social psychologists from Harvard. The study showed a major mismatch between reports from people on how they actually changed in the previous 10 years and how they predicted they would change in the next 10 years.
Essentially we tend to think that today represents a “watershed moment” and that the people we are today are roughly the same people we will be for the rest of our lives. Although the rate of change slows over time, even 68-year-olds underestimate how much they will change in upcoming years. In a New York Times interview, Daniel Gilbert, one of the authors involved in the study, summarised the results of the study well:
“What we never seem to realize is that our future selves will look back and think the very same thing about us. At every age, we think we’re having the last laugh, and at every age, we’re wrong.”
If you rewind 10 years and compare yourself back then to today, I’m sure you’ll find that a considerable amount of change has occurred. What music were you listening to? Who were your best friends? What were your hobbies? What were your major influences? Now look forward 10 years from where you are now. Do you anticipate the same rate of personal change over the next 10 years? Probably not.
So if you are planning a long term commitment like buying a house, getting a tattoo or choosing a spouse, consider that the future you may be a very different person than the one you are today.
Short note: I think it’s good to take the occasional break, so I won’t be sending a newsletter for the next 2 - 3 weeks. But I look forward to returning in October.
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